ITHACA, N.Y. — The taste of May we had in the dry slot of yesterday’s storm system was a meteorological tease, but we’re likely to make further runs in the 60s and even low 70s during the week ahead. Unfortunately, that warmth will largely come from a powerful storm system that will pass to the west and then north, resulting in abundant rain for much of the week ahead. Look on the bright side; the shovel gets a break and you can catch up on your reading, nestled away behind rain-streaked windows.

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With yesterday’s storm system now well off to the northeast, high pressure is skirting across Upstate New York on its way from the Western Great Lakes southeastward to the Atlantic Ocean. This has driven northwest winds this morning with below normal temperatures only topping out in the low 40s, but the winds are calming as the core of the high passes overhead, and the high April sun angle makes clothing feel toastier.

Skies will remain clear/near-clear through sunset, but a clipper low passing to the north will usher in increasing clouds overnight, with mostly cloudy skies by sunrise. This system should pass far enough to the north that Tompkins County will miss the first round of its precipitation. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s.

Monday is arguably the nicest day of the week, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and the clipper low’s trailing cold front sweeping south and east across the area towards sunset. Unfortunately, it also stalls out across the Southern Tier, which will make for a rainy Monday night. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s Monday, with lower 40s for lows overnight. New rainfall amounts will be in the 0.25-0.50″ range through sunrise Tuesday.

Tuesday will be an unsettled day as the front decays overhead. Scattered rain showers are likely, less numerous as the day goes on, with near-overcast skies and highs around 60. However, even as the frontal boundary falls apart faster than a Vegas marriage, the developing storm system over the Midwest will begin to impede on local conditions, as its warm front builds towards Tompkins County. A few leading showers are likely towards morning Wednesday, with cloudy conditions overnight and mild lows in the upper 40s.

Wednesday will see showers build into the area alongside the warm front, with precip looking to be on the lighter side at this time. Skies will be near-overcast with a gusty south wind and highs around 70. With so much heat energy and ambient atmospheric instability present, a few thunderstorms may even develop late in the day. Gusty south winds and light to moderate rain will continue through the overnight hours Wednesday as moisture is draped across the low’s warm sector while it move into Canada. Temperatures will only bottom out in the lower 50s.

At this time, it looks like the cold front will be slow to work even as it crosses through during the day Thursday, with a secondary push from a high pressure system over the Ohio River Valley needed to finish the job, as it were. Expect decreasing rain showers through the day Thursday with some breaks of sun during the PM hours and winds slowly turning from the south, to the west and then northwest. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s. Thursday night will see showers end early, followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies and breezy northwest winds, with lows in the lower 30s.

The high sends in noticeably cooler air for Friday. Plan for partly cloudy skies and some strong northwest winds during the day, which will make temperatures in the upper 40s feel more like the mid to upper 30s. Friday night sees the winds die down with partly cloudy skies and lows around 30.

Looking into next weekend, with the high moving east of Ithaca, temperatures will turn milder again, with dry, partly cloudy skies – don’t want to jinx it, but it’s looking like it could be a nice weekend to start your outdoor garden prep. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s Saturday and lower 60s Sunday, with lows in the 30s Saturday night.

Graphics courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Extended Outlook

The longer range outlook for mid-April is somewhat messy. The large-scale pattern is for a ridge of hot air in the Desert Southwest, unusually hot for this time of the year even by their standards, with downstream troughing over the Great Lakes. However, the next upstream jet ridge will be close enough to the Eastern Seaboard to keep the trough relatively confined, though with a lack of disturbances to reinforce cold air coming into the Eastern U.S. With that lack of disturbances mean generally drier than normal conditions, excluding the small part of Texas that gets Pacific moisture, and the small part of the east coast that gets clipped by Gulf of Mexico systems riding up the jet. So all in all, for Ithaca, near normal conditions are expected both in temperatures and precipitation during mid-April.

Brian Crandall reports on housing and development for the Ithaca Voice. He can be reached at bcrandall@ithacavoice.org.