ITHACA, N.Y. — Between California freaking out about hurricanes, killer heat in the Southern U.S. and practically everything on fire up in Canada, it’s nice to not be the center or meteorological attention this week. High pressure moving slowly ESE over the Great Lakes and Northeast will provide for generally quiet conditions for much of the week ahead, though a low pressure storm system is likely to cross the Finger Lakes Friday morning, with cooler if drier weather for next weekend.
Mostly sunny day ahead, but you may notice hazy smoke drifting by aloft from western US/Canada fires. Air quality info>> https://t.co/ldhi0z6NVs; forecast air quality (NY DEC and PA DEP) in "moderate" category today; nothing like the stuff earlier in summer. #pawx #nywx pic.twitter.com/qT0DwtQXoM— NWS Binghamton (@NWSBinghamton) August 20, 2023
Your Weekly Weather
It’s a quiet Sunday as high pressure migrates from the Central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. In the high’s clockwise circulation, this will result in a more southerly and moister flow than yesterday. It will be mostly sunny, with temperatures in the mid 80s for highs today, and dewpoints ticking up through the 50s and into the mid 60s, rather muggy, by sunset. This higher humidity will also result in a mild overnight, with increasing clouds and lows in the mid 60s.
Particulate air quality will be elevated as a result of Canadian wildfire smoke, but models have been consistently overestimating surface concentrations, and there are no Advisories in effect. However, smoke aloft may create a hazy, milky sky and colorful sunset later.
A low pressure storm system moving southeastward over Quebec will create the chance for a few isolated showers Monday as its cold front cuts across the Northeast during the later morning and early afternoon hours. However, the system is fairly weak, so don’t expect much in the way of rain. Ahead of the front, enhanced southwest flow will create a very muggy, mostly cloudy morning, though the humidity should start to decline as stronger NNW winds develop later in the day. Highs Monday will be around 80 with decreasing clouds late in the day. Monday night will see mostly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 50s.
The big shift ushered in by that front is that we switch from being under the warm, muggy flow of the Atlantic Ocean high, and into the drier, slightly cooler clockwise flow of a high pressure system over Minnesota and Wisconsin. This tamps down the humidity quite a bit and makes for a more pleasant outdoor experience Tuesday. It will be partly sunny and comfortable with highs in the mid 70s. Tuesday night will be mostly clear with that high pressure in control, with lows in the lower 50s – it would not be a surprise to see a few upper 40s overnight on the remote hilltops like Connecticut Hill.
Heading into Wednesday, the core of the high shifts to directly overhead. It will be mostly sunny with light winds, comfortable humidity, and highs in the upper 70s. Wednesday night will see partly cloudy skies, and lows in the upper 50s as the high shifts east and southeast winds keep temperatures from receding as much overnight.
A Canadian low pressure storm system will begin to push in from the northwest Thursday, but most of the activity should hold off until Thursday night. That said, as the low’s counterclockwise flow amplifies those south winds, it will be a rather humid day with mostly cloudy skies, some scattered showers and thunderstorms, and highs around 80. Thursday night will be unsettled and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms as the low approaches, mostly cloudy skies, and lows in the mid 60s.
The cold front associated with low should push through during the early evening Friday. Ahead of it, it will be tropically muggy with scattered showers and storms, breezy south winds and highs in the low 80s. Behind it, winds turn to the northwest, which will slowly if steadily bring down the humidity, and reduce but not completely eliminate showers overnight. Lows Friday night will be in the low 60s.
As for next weekend, Saturday will be cooler and more comfortable. Models show a second low passing southeast across the Midwest states that may instigate a few isolated showers, but generally it will be mostly cloudy with highs in the low 70s. A reinforcing cool push for Sunday will result in partly sunny skies, but highs that may only be around 70, and lows in the low 50s – autumn is a-comin’.
To emphasize the “taste of fall” aspect, the medium-range for the end of August and start of September calls for a cool pattern across the Northeast and Great Lakes, as the two lows draw in enough colder Canadian air behind them to send temperatures well below climatological normal – luckily for us, it’s late August, so that means high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s, given normal is around 80. Precipitation will be near-normal for the period. Meanwhile, the heat dome will persist over Texas and much of the West and South will be heading into an unusually hot Labor Day Weekend, even by their toasty standards.