ITHACA, N.Y. — It’ll be an unsettled start to the week as a second storm moves in shortly after this weekend’s rainmaker departs. While high pressure returns for the second half of the week, it’ll feel a little on the chilly side, with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. The flip side is that this high will keep the impacts of Hurricane Lee far away from Ithaca, and provide for a pleasant close to the work week.
Here is a look at yesterday's estimated rainfall totals. We are expecting to see another round of rain showers and possibly some weak t-storms move through this afternoon and into tonight. Some localized flash flooding remains possible. #nywx #pawx pic.twitter.com/sQAJhkQKRk— NWS Binghamton (@NWSBinghamton) September 10, 2023
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A frontal boundary stalled across Eastern New York State and much of New England is creating widespread cloud cover, as well as scattered showers and thunderstorms across Upstate this Sunday afternoon. These showers and storms will periodically roll through through the early overnight hours, with new rainfall amounts generally in the 0.1″-0.25″ range. With all that moisture in the region, temperatures will only recede slightly tonight, from highs in the low 70s today, into the lower 60s overnight, as showers and storms end after midnight.
As the front lifts off to the northeast Monday, skies will gradually clear up as the day progresses, with a light northwest wind behind the front. Temperatures will be a touch below normal, with highs in the mid 70s, as dry, mostly cloudy skies become partly cloudy later in the day. Monday night will be partly to mostly cloudy skies, with lows in the upper 50s.
A second low pressure storm system will pass to the north of Tompkins County Tuesday, and its trailing cold front will move into the area late in the day, around sunset. Ahead of the low, in the warm sector of its counterclockwise circulation, light winds will arise from the south, which will push temperatures up to around 80 as shower and storms begin to develop in the afternoon hours. Steadier if light rain moves in for Tuesday night as the front slowly crosses the region, with 0.1-0.25″ expected and lows in the low 60s.
The rain begins to wind down as the front passes around sunrise, but its slow movement with keep some showers and thunderstorms around the Ithaca area through the daylight hours Wednesday. It will be cool and mostly cloudy, with highs only around 70. Wednesday night will see showers taper off around midnight as the low continues to move away, with partly cloudy skies and cool overnight lows around 50.
High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes for Thursday. It will be unseasonable cool and partly sunny, with highs in the mid 60s. Thursday night will see a few passing clouds and lows in the upper 40s; bring a jacket if you’ll be out late.
Turning to Friday, the high pressure moves overhead, and the resulting slackening of northwest winds will allow temperatures to perk up. It will be sunny and around 70. This high will also keep Hurricane Lee from heavily impacting the Mid-Atlantic Coast, though questions remain as to the location and severity of impacts on New England and Atlantic Canada. Friday night will host partly cloudy skies with lows around 50.
Heading into next weekend, the current expectation is a dry and seasonably mild to slightly cool weekend. Highs will be in the low 70s Saturday and mid 70s Sunday, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.
Looking into the second half of September and the start of astronomical autumn, the large-scale setup calls for a pronounced jet stream ridge over the Mountain West, and a trough over the Appalachians. Part of this is likely a reflection of Hurricane Lee as it darts northward across the Atlantic next weekend; this will usher in warm, moist air closer to the storm and its path as it speeds poleward, but its large-scale counterclockwise flow will help draw down cooler Canadian air further west and enhance the weak troughiness of the jet stream. For Tompkins County, it’s looking like it will be marginally warmer than normal, with precip near to slightly above normal.