ITHACA, N.Y. — It was an unseasonably mild Christmas Day across Tompkins County, and the rest of the week is looking to be on the warm side as well. A large storm system will keep temperatures mild for the start of winter, though it will be cloud, rainy and rather dreary for much of the week closing out 2023.
Your Weekly Weather
A large storm system is churning across the Midwest, and while Tompkins County remains in the warm sector of the low for the next few days, with ample mild air across the region, smaller shortwave lows are spinning around it like spokes on a wheel hub, and that will introduce some showers into the area tonight. A developing coastal low east of the Carolinas will also take advantage of the broad counterclockwise circulation to deliver ample rainfall for Wednesday into Thursday, with showers, primarily in the form of rain, to continue through the weekend.
For your post-Christmas Tuesday, showers will build into the area from the south and west as the afternoon advances, though amounts through sunset should be light, <0.10″. Skies will be overcast with highs in the upper 40s. Tuesday night will see periods of light to moderate rain, likely in the 0.10-0.25″ overnight, with lows in the low to mid 40s.
Wednesday is a “coffeeshop rainy day” as one of my colleagues would say. It will be cloudy with periods of moderate rain and highs in the low 50s. New rainfall will be around 0.50″, with some locally higher amounts, but the rainfall appears to be too low and slow to trigger any widespread flooding concerns. Wednesday night will see the rain become more showery after midnight with lows in the lower 40s.
As the coastal low heads out east into the open Atlantic, Thursday will see lighter, more showery rains, but it will remain grey and damp, with highs in the upper 40s. Thursday night will see scattered rain and snow showers with lows in the upper 40s, a little cooler given the weak north winds on the backside of the low.
The Midwest low moves into Tennessee and Kentucky by Friday, not particularly strong but detached from jet stream flow, so the low and its cold pool will linger to our southwest. Friday will see another round of light showers with near-overcast conditions and highs in the lower 40s. Friday night will see showers ending, with mostly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 20s.
Heading into the weekend, Cornell scientists are working to identify if a glowing ball of gas, purported called “the sun”, will be visible to the naked eye Saturday. Skies will be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 30s. With weak stable air overhead, Saturday night will be quiet, with mostly cloudy skies and lows in the mid to upper 20s. Sunday will be a tad warmer with weak southwest flow. Skies will be mostly cloudy with highs around 40. Sunday night New Years’ Eve will be quiet and on the mild side of seasonable, with mostly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 20s.
As for New Year’s Day, the weather looks to be fairly quiet. A few lake-enhanced rain or snow showers will be possible, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 30s. Dry conditions are expected Monday night, with lows around 30.
Extended Outlook
Looking into the first week of 2024, the large-scale pattern calls for weak jet stream ridging over the Western U.S., which will draw in ample moisture from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico to create wetter than normal conditions across the southern third of the country. Locally, the pattern steers storm systems away from the Northeast, so below-normal precipitation is expected for Upstate New York, along with seasonable temperatures.