ITHACA, N.Y. — For those of you who have decided that our taste of winter over the past week has already worn out its welcome, you’ll be pleased to know that a major warmup is in the cards for this week’s weather, as an Arctic high shifts east and ample southerly flow kicks in on its rear flank. However, that will come with ample cloud cover and rain.

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The Arctic high currently parked over the Ohio River Valley will shift southeastward over the next few days, while a low pressure storm system rides up the back (western) side of its clockwise circulation. A second Arctic high will move over Ontario and Quebec, but with the stream of moisture and instability coming up the Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes, the high will be deflected from any southward motion, primarily moving eastward across Canada. The primary effect of that second high will be to stymie the flow of moisture further northward, keeping precip in the area while providing some cold air to points well east of Ithaca.

In the meanwhile, it will be a cold and blustery Sunday on the northeast side of that first Arctic high. Some light lake effect snow (<1″) is likely over the next few hours, with gusty northwest winds creating blowing snow and decreased visibility. Bands will shift away as the flow becomes more westerly and then southwesterly with the movement of the high, and skies will clear out towards sunset and during the evening hours. Highs will be in the mid 20s, but windchills will make it feel more 10 degrees, give or take a bit. Tonight will be cold and partly cloudy with light south winds and lows in the lower teens.

Monday will be a substantially warmer day as the high moves towards the coastal Carolinas, ushering in more abundant southwest flow. The Arctic front ahead of that Canadian Arctic high mentioned earlier will bring additional cloud cover into area, going from mostly sunny to near-overcast by sunset, but no precip is expected. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s across Tompkins County. A few snow showers may develop before sunrise Tuesday, but otherwise it will be cloud and quiet Monday night with lows in the upper 20s.

That first lobe of moisture on the back side of the Carolinas high should begin to arrive Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be just below freezing at that point, so a brief period of snow is likely at the onset, in the 6-9 AM range, but it will change over to a cold rain by late morning. Highs will be in the upper 30s, with light to low-moderate rainfall with minimal new snowfall. Tuesday night will see periods of light rain with maybe a few wet snow showers, with lows generally hovering in the mid 30s through the night.

A second surge of mild air and moisture arrives for Wednesday. Expect rain showers and cloudy skies with highs in the low 40s. Wednesday night will see rain showers continue, moreso after midnight, with lows in the mid to upper 30s (which I will note, is warmer than our average high for late January).

As that milder air presses northeastward, temperatures will rise higher Thursday, if still grey and damp. Period of rain showers are likely with highs in the upper 40s. Thursday night will see yet more showers and a low around 40.

A cold front will pass through later Friday, though not before high temperatures top out around 50. Rain showers will decrease during the day as the front moves eastward, but it will remain cloudy. Friday night will see a few lingering rain showers with lows in the upper 30s.

Peering into next weekend, there are signs of a coastal system that currently looks to be of no major impact here, and from this far out we’re seeing generally cloudy if quiet conditions locally. Enough mild air remains behind the cold front that temperatures will still run above normal, lower 40s Saturday and around 40 Sunday, with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. So basically, it’s going to be a mild but week ahead.

Graphics courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Extended Outlook

Looking into the start of February, the large-scale weather pattern calls for a pronounced jet stream ridge over much of the lower 48, with above-normal temperatures across much of the continental United States, including Tompkins County. The air advected northeastward would generally come from Texas and Mexico instead of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic, so unlike many of these warm spells in recent weeks, this one is expected to result in drier than normal conditions as we kick off the second month of 2024.

Brian Crandall reports on housing and development for the Ithaca Voice. He can be reached at bcrandall@ithacavoice.org.