ITHACA, N.Y. — This is not one of those weather weeks to brag about. While there will be a couple of decent days in the mix, the umbrella won’t be far away for long this upcoming week, and it appears likely to turn colder for your Mother’s Day weekend. Don’t worry, we know things will magically improve just in time for the college kids to graduate later in the month.

Your Weekly Weather

A low pressure storm system is passing to the north over Canada, and its associated cold frontal boundary is dragging across Upstate New York this Sunday, tapping into some Atlantic moisture as it conjures widespread showers across the region.

It will be a cool day for early May, as the cloud cover and ambient moisture prevent temperatures from rising much, even with the south breeze. Highs will be around 60 with scattered rain showers throughout the day. New rainfall amounts will be in the 0.10-0.25″ range. A few lingering showers are likely tonight as the front passes east, with new rainfall <0.1″. It will be cloudy and lows will be in the lower 50s. Some valley fog will be possible towards sunrise.

Monday will be an improvement weather-wise as high pressure builds in from the Western Great Lakes. Clouds will decrease throughout the day, and showers south and east of Ithaca will dissipate. It will be pleasantly warm, with a light northwest wind and highs in the lower 70s. Monday night will be partly cloudy and cool with lows in the lower 40s.

The high gets shunted northeastward as a storm system winds up over the Upper Midwest. The daytime hours Tuesday look pretty good for now, as forecast models don’t show the leading edge of that system arriving until Tuesday night. It will be mostly sunny with increasing clouds late in the day, and highs will be in the mid 70s. Tuesday night will see showers and thunderstorms building in as the low’s frontal boundary sweeps into the region. It will be a damp overnight, but the moisture will help retain daytime heating, so lows will only be in the mid 50s.

Wednesday will be unsettled as a secondary low develops along the frontal boundary, eventually breaking off and dragging its own compact shield of moisture eastward into Southern New England. Given the unstable atmosphere, expect some showers and thunderstorms during the day, with the focus of the precip moving east of Tompkins County during the PM hours. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with skies partially clearing later in the day.

Wednesday night will see clouds build back in as another low begins to develop over the Ohio River Valley, with the Upper Midwest system (which has largely stayed in place) transferring its energy to that system. A few rain showers will be possible towards sunrise, and lows will be in the lower 50s.

Current model projections show that storm system’s core moving directly across the Twin Tiers later Thursday. Expect a rainy day with bands of showers and thunderstorms; early indications suggest a substantial amount of rain with this event. It will be cloudy and highs will be in the upper 60s. The system appears likely to slow and transfer energy to a coastal low Thursday night. Showers will decrease after midnight, with lows in the lower 50s.

I would like to say things will improve, but the coastal low will become rather strong, and a clipper low from the northwest will only reinforce the trough of cold air digging into the Northeast. It’s looking unsettled and colder than normal as we head into next weekend. Friday will see scattered showers and generally overcast skies with highs in the low 60s, and showers and overcast conditions continue Friday night with lows in the mid 40s.

As for the weekend itself, it looks likely to be cool and showery, with gray skies and highs around 60. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s both Saturday and Sunday. If you’ll be taking your mother out for brunch on Sunday, have the umbrella and a sweater handy.

Graphics courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Extended Outlook

Looking into mid-May, the large-scale weather pattern calls for a persistent jet stream ridge in the Western U.S., and a pronounced trough in the east. This setup generally favors funneling cold Canadian air into the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Mid-South, but would also result in somewhat cooler than normal in the Great Lakes and Northeast as well (note that average highs by this time of year are typically mid to upper 60s, with lows in the low to mid 40s). Being on the edge of the trough will open up the possibility for being clipped by developing coastal lows, so precip will be near to slightly above normal during this period.

Brian Crandall reports on housing and development for the Ithaca Voice. He can be reached at bcrandall@ithacavoice.org.