ITHACA, N.Y. — It’s a rainy day across much of Upstate New York this early December Sunday, with about 0.67″ of rain reported at the airport and a similar 0.73″ at Cornell’s weather station on Game Farm Road in Dryden. The steadier rain is coming to an end, but a chilly and unsettled week is on tap for Tompkins County. Cold air and snow showers will pervade the area for mid-week, though a rebound to above-normal temperatures looks to be in the cards for next weekend. Nothing especially disruptive appears to be on deck for this week’s weather.

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The steadier rains of a complex storm system have have pushed off to the northeast and a warm tongue of air will be in place until the arrival of a cold front tomorrow. To be a little more explicit, this system is really two low pressure centers impacting each other, with one moving up the St. Lawrence Valley, the other an oceanic low off of Cape Cod that’s providing ample moisture for rain. There’s enough warm air in place, ushered in ahead of the lows, that only the higher elevations of Upstate are seeing any snowfall – otherwise, the moisture in this system would’ve made for a disruptive Nor’Easter.

On top of the rain that’s already fallen, some on-and-off showers are likely for the remainder of the day, perhaps another 0.10-0.25″ of rain through evening as models suggest a brief but strong band of heavier rain after sunset. With breezy SSE winds, temperatures will hove in the upper 40s to around 50 through this evening. With the moisture, south wind and mostly cloudy skies, it doesn’t cool off much tonight, with overnight lows gradually receding to around 40 at sunrise Monday morning.

Monday sees a few lake-enhanced rain and snow showers as the western low slowly slides to the ENE and the eastern coastal low moves off into Atlantic Canada. Westerly winds behind the lows will drive some lake-enhanced instability showers, but these look to be light, <0.10″, and in the form of rain for Tompkins County. Highs will be in the mid 40s with overcast skies. Monday night sees the rain showers change over to snow towards midnight, but no accumulation is expected. Showers will wind down and skies will begin to clear towards sunrise Tuesday. Lows Monday might will be in the lower 30s.

Tuesday will be a colder, quieter day as high pressure develops a weak hold across the Southern Tier. WNW winds will drive some lake-enhanced rain and snow showers, but new rainfall/snowfall amounts will be minimal. Skies will be near-overcast with highs in the upper 30s. Tuesday night will see a few isolated snow showers as a shortwave low dives across Ohio and Pennsylvania, with lows around 30.

A coastal low will wind up on Wednesday, but it will be too far away to have precipitation impacts. It will, however, strengthen northerly flow in its counterclockwise circulation, so there will be an enhanced flow of cold air into the region Wednesday. A few isolated lake-enhanced snow showers are possible, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 30s. Wednesday night will see mostly cloudy skies with lows in the mid 20s.

High pressure begins to build across the Southeast Thursday, while a decaying trough of low pressure shambles eastward from Canada and into Upstate. Skies will be mostly cloudy Thursday with highs in the mid 30s, but as the trough breaks down, southwest winds in the high’s clockwise circulation will begin to have an impact, with mostly cloudy skies and above-normal lows in the lower 30s Thursday night.

Heading into Friday, it’s looking like the high will provide for a quiet day while a well-defined low pressure storm system winds up over the Western Great Lakes. The setup puts Tompkins County in the warm sector for Friday, and highs will climb accordingly, into the mid 40s with mostly cloudy skies. Friday night will see mostly cloudy skies with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Peering into next weekend, the strengthening low will move northeastward towards Hudson’s Bay, but it will build a substantial frontal boundary across the East Coast. Saturday will be mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s, but Sunday looks to be a steady, at time heavy rain with highs in the mid 40s. Things could change over the next week, but right now, it’s looking to be a repeat of this weekend, a soaker but too warm for a snowstorm.

Graphics courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Extended Outlook

Looking into the middle of December, the large-scale setup will keep you dreaming for that white Christmas. The pattern favors a persistent jet stream trough over the Western U.S. and a persistent ridge over the Eastern U.S., with warmer than normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation thanks to Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture. Unfortunately for you snow lovers, this enhanced precipitation would likely be in the form of rain. But, this time of the year, it all depends on timing, so if you keep hoping, you just might luck out with a snow even somewhere in the lead-up to the holidays.

Brian Crandall reports on housing and development for the Ithaca Voice. He can be reached at bcrandall@ithacavoice.org.