ITHACA, N.Y. — February in Ithaca has been unseasonably warm, running over 9 °F above normal for the month so far. While a more seasonably cold stretch starts off the week ahead, temperatures will once again rise well above normal mid-week, with stable conditions expected. A more unsettled rain/snow pattern will return for the end of the week, though relatively mild overnight lows will keep temperatures running on the plus-side of normal as we head into next weekend. No major weather disruptions are expected this week.
Your Weekly Weather
It’s a cloudy and cold Sunday for your President’s Day weekend, not exactly the kind of weather that screams “oh boy, I can’t wait to go outside.” A clipper low is passing to the north of Tompkins County across Ontario, Quebec and Northern NYS as it heads ESE into New England. This storm is not that strong or well-supplied with moisture, and those factors, along with its the quick movement, will result in only minor snowfall for Tompkins County tonight into Monday morning. Tompkins County may see a coating to an inch, though if you’re heading to Syracuse during the overnight hours tonight, you’ll see a little more since you’re moving closer to the center of the low.
Today could be one of those seemingly rare 2023-24 winter days with a below normal temperature, with highs only in the lower 30s, a touch below the normal mid 30s for this time of year. However, with ample cloud cover today and tonight, lows in Ithaca proper will be around 20, which is a tad above normal, and basically the story of this winter. Since December 1st, the overnight lows have been much, much warmer than normal than the highs, about 8 °F above normal for lows, vs. 4 °F above normal for daily highs.
High pressure consolidates to the northwest of Ithaca and encroaches into the region behind the low Monday. It will be mostly cloudy with a few snow showers to start the day, and becoming partly cloudy and drier in the afternoon. Highs will be in the low 30s. Monday night will see skies become mostly clear, which will allow temperatures to dip lower, with a frosty overnight lows in the mid teens.
The center of the high dives southeastward into northern New England Tuesday, and the high’s clockwise flow will tap into milder air from the south. Plan for mostly sunny conditions with highs in the lower 40s. Tuesday night will be quiet and on the warm side for February, with partly cloudy skies and lows in the mid to upper 20s.
The high continues to move ESE Wednesday, and a developing counterclockwise-spinning low pressure storm system over the Great Plains will amplify southwesterly flow and warm air advection. It will be dry and partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 40s. Wednesday night will see a mix of light rain and snow showers develop as the low moves northeastward. Skies will be mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 30s.
Heading into Thursday, Tompkins County remains in the warm sector of the low for the daytime hours, but there will be periods of rain and thick grey clouds as that low plods eastward. Highs will be in the upper 40s. Thursday night will see winds turn from the south to the northwest as the cold front passes sometime between midnight and sunrise Friday. Expect rain showers, with perhaps a few snow showers mixing in around sunrise Friday, and lows in the mid 30s.
Friday will be a cooler day with scattered rain showers, though highs will still run above normal as the cold air steadily enters the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. Highs will be in the low 40s. Friday night may see some lake effect snow showers as the low strengthens off the coast of Cape Cod and its counterclockwise flow amplifies north winds over Lake Ontario. It will be mostly cloudy with the aforementioned showers and lows in the low to mid 20s.
Glancing into next weekend, the low will lift northeastward, away from us and towards Atlantic Canada Saturday. However, models suggest another clipper low will pass north of region later Sunday into Monday morning. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s both days, with perhaps Sunday being the slightly warmer day, and a mix of rain and snow showers and mostly cloudy skies are expected for both days.
Extended Outlook
Looking into the end of our 29-day February and start of March, the large-scale weather pattern portends a deep jet stream trough over Alaska and the West Coast, and a downstream ridge over the Central and Eastern United States. This kind of pattern would be favorable for channeling moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and into the Ohio River Valley, Midwest and Great Lakes, and to a lesser extent the inland Northeast. With this setup, Tompkins County will likely see temperatures run above normal, though not to extremes, and precip will be modestly above normal, though major snowmakers are less likely and more rain events would be expected with temperatures more consistently above freezing.
In meteorological parlance, we usually define winter as “DJF”, December-January-February. Going back to 1893-94, we are currently ranked 4th place for the warmest average temperature for that three-month period (and last year was 9th warmest). We’ll see where the meteorological winter finishes in a couple weeks, but it doesn’t look like this year is going to drop much in the rankings, given what this week and next week look like.